Forex Trading - A Novice's Guide

Indian share traders will find much useful in this article on Forex trading. While Forex (Foreign Exchange) is a different market to Indian Shares, it can provide useful information into the underlying economic conditions of a country.

A Novice Forex Traders Guide To Fundamental Analysis. By: Steve Todd

If you are new to forex trading you have access to a lot of fundamental analysis as the click of a mouse from banks brokers and news wires you can look at and trade upon it – let’s look at forex fundamental analysis and how to use it.

A forex trader, who makes trades based upon fundamental analysis, will look at the supply and demand situation in relation to the currency studied, and try and predict the impact of the various factors on its movement and they include:

• Economic growth and economic policy

• Interest rate outlook

• Balance of payments

• Employment

• Trade deficit

• Political Factors

To name but a few but there is a problem when trying to use fundamental analysis:

The facts are there for all to see but price is ultimately decided by millions of different opinions such as you and me and we all draw our own conclusions from the facts and numbers. Furthermore all the news is available in seconds anywhere and this means it is discounted.

With human nature involved and the fact that fundamental analysis is quickly discounted it is almost impossible for the novice trader to execute trading signals on.

If you want a graphic example of how forex fundamental analysis won’t help you make money consider this fact:

The ratio of winners to losers is the same today as it was 50 years ago and this is despite better news more of it and faster communications. So if you are thinking of trading it think again.

A far easier way is to study charts and use technical analysis.

A technical approach takes into account both the supply and demand situation, as well as investor psychology. We can see the impact of both at once and reflected in the price.

Many traders don’t believe that technical analysis works, as it can’t take into account the fundamentals but this is not correct:

Technical analysis assumes that all known fundamentals are going to show up instantly in price action. Technical analysis therefore is simply a short cut way of taking into account the fundamentals and more importantly takes into account human psychology.

The equation for market movement is:

Supply and demand factors + Human perception (investor psychology) = Price action

So if you are thinking of trading using forex fundamental analysis, you can save yourself a lot of time and increase your chances of success, by taking a technical approach - that reflects ALL the factors that influence price and increase your odds of success.

With technical analysis you act on the reality of price - not opinions and therefore trade the truth and not what you or anyone else thinks it might be.

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